tonight at the final debate between obama and romney, the subject, afghanistan, libya, iran, your world. political poll position. the race is tightening with 15 days before america votes. latest numbers ahead. and lance armstrong speaks out for the first time about the turmoil he has faced over the past few weeks. details right now. very good morning to you. i'm veronica de la cruz. this is "first look" on msnbc.

heading into tonight's third and final presidential debate, our new nbc news "wall street journal" poll shows election night could be a cliff-hanger with the candidates now dead even. chuck todd breaks down the numbers. >> reporter: the new nbc news "wall street journal" poll shows the candidates in a 47-47 tie among likely voters. in mid september, the president led 50-45. the numbers show an evenly divided country overall. the president's job approval holding steady at 49%. economic approval down at 46%. foreign policy approval at 49%. the poll also shows a clear enthusiasm gap. the president has a 49-44 lead among all registered voters, but that 47-47 tie among likelies, it means republicans are more enthusiastic and more likely to vote. the biggest red flag for obama, 62% say they want major changes if he's re-elected. romney's biggest red flag, by

44-43, he is still personally viewed more negatively than positively. >> that was nbc's chuck todd reporting there. after a violent weekend in the middle east, tonight's third and final presidential debate topic of foreign policy is more timely than ever. nbc's tracie pots has a preview for us from washington this morning. tracie, good morning to you. >> reporter: good morning. israel, iran, syria, lebanon, libya of course. it is all expected to come up at that debate tonight. the debate is going to look a lot different, as we take a look at the debate preps in boca raton, florida. both candidates will be seated tonight. no props, no notes or anything like that. and they've got six 15-minute segments where they'll talk about the war in afghanistan, america's role in the world, and of course, the middle east and the new face of terror as it's described by the moderator, bob schieffer, who chose those topics. expect president obama, who was at camp david over the weekend

preparing for this, to talk about whether or not governor romney is ready. he's got a new ad out insisting that the governor is not ready for primetime when it comes to national security. he will also probably talk about the governor's quick reaction to the deaths in libya. meantime, governor romney, very likely to talk about the inconsistencies within the administration about what was behind that attack. all that tonight. veronica? >> tracie pots in washington. we appreciate you watching for it. we'll have coverage at 8:00 p.m. right here on the place for politics. this morning we are learning more about the gunman who opened fire at a wisconsin day spa leaving four people dead. authorities say it appears to be a case of domestic violence and that the 45-year-old suspected shooter had a temporary restraining order on him against his wife. nbc's jay gray has details.

>> reporter: police are still trying to put together exactly what happened in this normally quiet milwaukee suburb. >> it could take days, weeks, to figure this all out. a very large crime scene. a very confused crime scene. radcliffe haughton walked into the spa and opened fire. >> a girl in her 20s holding a paper towel to her neck because she was bleeding from her neck. >> reporter: three women were killed, four others wounded. >> we had seen about ten people come running out of the back of the building with their hands up screaming. >> reporter: in the chaos, swat team and federal agents moved in, finding the suspect in a remote area of the spa dead from an apparent gunshot wound. >> the one suspect we believe responsible for the shootings today is deceased. >> reporter: investigators say haughton's wife worked at the spa and had recently been

granted a restraining order against him. >> we believe this incident is domestic violence related. >> reporter: a family dispute that became very public and very violent on sunday. this morning, police continue their investigation. jay gray, nbc news. here's your first look at other stories going on early today in america. about a dozen passengers suffered minor injuries when an amtrak train derailed in michigan. the passenger cars rattled off the track after an approaching train passed by. an amtrak official says the cause of the derailment is still under investigation. we head next to denver where a life was saved on camera. this calf needed mouth to mouth rescue breathing after he was found nonresponsive. officials say the newborn is doing just fine. several hundred women in texas showed their high-heeled shows were made for more than just walking. the ladies competed in 100-yard races for the annual stiletto

stampede. check this out, the guys. the guys even strapped on the pumps to show their support. the event was organized to raise money for breast cancer awareness. look at that guy right there. finally, west virginia's 33rd birthday brought out an extreme cast of characters. wow, look at that. 400 base jumpers took leaps off the 876-foot new george bridge. two of them were newlyweds who had just tied the knot 30 minutes before their jump. very brave. time now for a look at the national weather. we turn to bill karins with the weather channel forecast. >> the guy let her go first. >> a gentleman. >> you go. you jump. good morning, everyone. it's a nice, mild start to our week. the exception was the pacific

northwest. anywhere east of the rockies was fantastic, warm, dry weather just about everywhere. it continues this morning. 75 degrees right knew to start your morning in texas. we're in the 50s in the east coast. light jacket for everyone. this warm weather pattern, it looks like it's here to stay for the beginning of the week. storms in new england exiting. warm air dominating the country. warm clouds and damp weather in chicago, michigan, and some areas of the plains. it will be warm. it won't be a cold period. by the end of this week is when we finally start to see things changing. we'll see a plunge of cool air, not cold, but cool air rushing down from the north. instead of being above average, temperatures will drop. areas like minneapolis who were going to be in the 70s will drop to the 50s. that chilly air will make it to the east coast by sunday. instead of being so extremely warm, we'll go back to where we should be.

not a lot of wet weather. showers and storms popping up northern missouri into iowa. that's about it. not a lot of umbrellas needed. later today we will see showers spreading into areas like northern illinois. later tonight and tomorrow southern michigan and areas in upstate new york. as far as the forecast goes for today, it looks to be very mild this afternoon after that chilly start in the morning where you could use the jacket. areas like new york city, we should see temperatures around 70 degrees. veronica, not many problems out there for the day. enjoy. we can't complain. thanks for that, bill. controlling your phone or ipad with a blink of an eye? details about the new ipad mini and gas prices drop. your business prices are straight ahead. plus, cuban leader fidel castro is seen for the first time in months. he criticizes the rumor mongers.

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welcome back to "first

look." here are some of the stories making news this morning. clashes erupted in lebanon following friday's assassination of an anti-syrian top intelligence official. many lebanese politicians are blaming syria for the killing. at a live strong charity bike ride in texas, lance armstrong spoke out publicly for the first time since stepping down as chairman of his cancer charity and being dumped by sponsors following a devastating report about doping. armstrong said he's faced a difficult few weeks. >> people ask me a lot how you doing? i tell them, well, i've been better. but i've also been worse. funeral services will be held later this week for former south dakota senator george mcgovern, who died sunday at the age of 90. mcgovern was perhaps best known for his outspoken opposition to to the vietnam war and his landslide defeat to president nixon in 1972. cuba's fidel castro is alive and well, according to a photo leased by a former venezuelan vice president.

he wrote an article published in state media where he criticizes rumors that he was on his death bed. the catholic church now has seven new saints, including the first native american, that's thanks to pope benedict. some 80 thousand pilgrims filled saint peters square. now here's your first look at this morning's dish of scrambled politics. mitt romney's surrogate, marco rub row was asked about a report iran is ready to deal on nukes. senator rubio stayed on message. >> the white house has denied it so i don't think there's much more to talk about. i'm not going to comment on that story. i don't think there's anything further to comment on that story. >> i will say this. >> let me say this though. obviously war is always the last option. no one wants a war. i think governor romney would agree with it. force is the last option. the least desirable one. it has to be on the table. i think he's very cognizant of the fact that iran has used

negotiations in the past to buy themselves time. i think under president romney you would not have to haggle with the white house on sanctions. i think they would lead on sanctions. in mormon utah, they have endorsed president obama. the salt lake tribune says it, quote, had hoped that romney would exhibit the same talents for organization, pragmatic problem solving and inspired leadership that he displayed in more than a decade ago. instead, we've watched him morph to the far right. in battleground ohio the boards reading voter fraud is a felony are coming down. critics say they appeared in mostly latino and african-american neighborhoods. they tell the cleveland plain dealer saying they broke their own rule of posting anonymous records. in florida, governor romney

took a break from debate prep leading the coin toss in a football game. his wife ann did one better scoring a touchdown. finally, check it out, the obama team cleaning house at least when it comes to campaign merchandise taking 30% off everything in stock. it better move fast. that's going to be your morning dish of scrambled politics. and now here's your first look at how wall street will kick off the week. the dow opens at 13,343 after dropping 205 points friday. the s&p sank 24 and the nasdaq plunged 67. trading in tokyo finished up 8 points while in hong kong the hang seng rose 145. ahead this week, earnings, earnings, more earnings. more than 150 s and p companies weigh in with quarterly reports including apple, caterpillar and at&t. there will also be a federal reserve policy on investors monies.

also, third quarter gdp gets updated and some experts say the housing industry could push growth up 2% which could have an impact on the elections. wheeling and dealing, bp is going to buy most of its business in russia for cash and stock. good news for drivers at home. the price of regular gas has dropped 8.5 cents over the past two weeks to an average of $3.75. after sending this cryptic invitation teasing we've got a little more to show you, apple is expected to unveil a mini ipad tomorrow. not to be outdone, microsoft will release its touchscreen friendly windows 8 operating system which has radical changes in store. they will debut a new online music service and its very first tablet. check it this out. forget using your fingers. you may be able to control your mobile device with your eyes.

the company called itribe hopes to have it on the market in 2013. well, some parents might want to have that birds and bees talk with their boys a little sooner than expected. a new study shows males are hitting puberty six months to a year before. for african-americans it's 9, for white and hispanics it's sooner. the wnba grabs a new champion and big ben tangles with the bengals. it is do or die time for the giants. you're watching "first look" on msnbc. the wheat in every mini-wheat has gotta be just right.

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♪ 45 bushels of wheat ...all morning long. there's a big breakfast... [ mini ] yee haw! ...in those fun little biscuits. welcome back. in sports now, we start with baseball, and a game seven tonight in the national league championship series. in san francisco, the giants' ryan vogelsong struck out nine, a career best. and marco scutaro hit a two-run double as the giants beat the cards 6-1. tonight's winner will face detroit in the world series starting wednesday. now to the nfl sunday night game. pittsburgh broke a tie with cincinnati in the fourth quarter on an 11-yard burst. the steelers beat the bengals 24-17. eli manning pulled out another dramatic fourth quarter comeback with a 77-yard bomb in the closing minutes to victor cruz. the giants get an exciting 27-23

win over washington, and cruz, there he goes. drew brees and the saints beat tampa bay. 35-28. green bay's aaron rodgers tossed three scoring passes as the packers got their fourth straight victory 30-20 over st. louis. college football now, alabama still number one in the bcs rankings, with florida in second place. kansas state moved up to number three with a win over west virginia. oregon is fourth. notre dame rounds out the top five. in the wnba, tameka catchings had 25 points as the indiana fever won its first championship, beating minnesota three games to one. and finally, the red sox have traded for their new manager. boston got toronto manager john farrell by trading mike aviles to the blue jays to bring their former pitching coach back to fenway park. this is only the seventh time in major league history that a team has traded for a manager.

for another look at the weather, here is nbc meteorologist bill karins with the weather center forecast. >> that's crazy, a manager for a player. >> i know. seventh time it's ever happened. >> i follow baseball closely. i never heard of that. you taught me something. good morning, once again. if you're joining us, it's a quiet morning. light jacket needed in new england. temperatures in the 40s and 50s. what a great weekend after a rainy friday. saturday and sunday turned out nice. the leaves pretty much at their peak in many, many areas. today's forecast, the leaves will look great once again today with temperatures soaring into the 60s, near 70 in washington, d.c. what a week it will be for the mid-atlantic. the cold air doesn't get here until sunday of this week. 70s all week long with possible 80s on wednesday. this looks like a june forecast or maybe early september. it should be low humidity too.

should be absolutely gorgeous. in the middle of the country, exceptionally warm also but we will have a chance of some rain in a few spots including missouri, illinois, michigan. even into tomorrow there's really no big weather concerns out there. the problems are all in the pacific northwest. this time last year didn't we have our first snowstorm. >> that's right, some areas of new england did get that freak snowstorm. >> good memory. >> now it feels like summer. all right. just ahead. a new baby for adele and new details about the filming of "hangover 3." plus, an 11-year-old texan makes history. you're watching "first look" on msnbc. i'm done!

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time now for entertainment news. "paranormal activity 4" pulled in a lower than expected $30.2 million this weekend. filming for "the hangover 3" caused head aches for drivers after shutting down a highway. who drives on that? >> hopefully they can make up for the second one. >> 405 and the 101. and adele and her new boyfriend reportedly have a new bundle of joy after she gave birth to a baby boy. congratulations. >> he'll probably have a good voice too, i bet. >> i know. this weekend, "snl" poked fun at last week's heated presidential debate. take a look. >> libya.

>> you know, i'm glad you brought up libya. governor romney wants to politicize libya in the same way he wants to politicize my handling of the economy. governor romney wants to polite size things so much that sometimes it makes me feel like he and i are both politicians. you got a problem? >> yeah, yeah, i got a problem. i want to know why it took you so long to call the attack in benz. >> i said that the next day. >> no, you didn't. >> yes, i did. >> you have never even in your life used the phrase terrorist act. >> get the transcript. >> governor, he has, in fact, used the phrase terrorist act. >> candy, no, no, no, no. candy, come on. >> i'm afraid he did. >> candy, please. candy. >> oh, my god.

>> that was the first time i've seen that. that was classic. >> that was great. >> over the top, of course. >> perfect. i'm veronica de la cruz. this is "first look" on msnbc. a special edition of way too early live from florida starts right now. with election day so close you can almost see it from here, president obama and mitt romney step into the ring tonight for one last time. it's "way too early" for this. and welcome to boca where tonight we'll see president obama and mitt romney on stage together for the third and final time before election today. the focus up the road at lynn university will be on foreign policy. boy, is there a lot of ground to cover there, from benghazi, to tehran, to afghanistan, china and beyond. good morning and